Market Statistics - September 2017 - Urban Nest Real Estate Team

October has arrived with blue skies and the expected morning chill. That same chilling effect has to the single family home market in all areas of the Lower Mainland. In contrast, most of the attached properties are still receiving multiple offers which may be due to buyers trying to take advantage of their pre-approved mortgage rates prior to their rate-holds expiring but there are a declining percentage of multiple offers in the single-family home market in all areas of the Lower Mainland.

In contrast, most of the attached properties are still receiving multiple offers which may be due to buyers trying to take advantage of their pre-approved mortgage rates prior to their rate-holds expiring but there are a declining percentage of those multiple offer situations over the previous month's numbers.

For this month, I've added a few tables to better show what the most recent market statistics are doing. For example, for one bedroom units in Metro Vancouver, 70 out of 108 sales (65%) were at or above the asking price (102.4% of the asking price, on average) and were on the market for an average of 15 days in the last week of September.

Metro Vancouver Attached Property Sales in the last week of September

# Sales at/over Asking	Total Sales	% of Sales at/over Asking	Type of Unit	% of Asking Price	Avg Days on Market
3	5	60%	Studio (no separate bdrm)	101.9%	20
70	108	65%	One bedroom	102.4%	15
102	179	57%	Two bedroom	101.0%	18
31	75	41%	Three or more bedrooms	100.2%	21
206	367	56%	Total of all types	101.1%	18

Fraser Valley Attached Property Sales in the last week of September

# Sales at/over Asking	Total Sales	% of Sales at/over Asking	Type of Unit	Avg Paid over Asking	Avg Days on Market
1	1	100%	Studio (no separate bdrm)	100.3%	5
30	53	57%	One bedroom	100.9%	16
42	74	57%	Two bedroom	101.8%	15
27	54	50%	Three or more bedrooms	100.3%	14
100	182	55%	Total of all types	101.0%	15

Metro Vancouver Detached Property Sales in the last week of September

# Sales at/over Asking	Total Sales	% of Sales at/over Asking	Sale Price of Home	% of Asking Price	Avg Days on Market
5	21	24%	$0 to $999,999	98.8%	23
19	64	30%	$1M to $1.999M	97.7%	28
3	36	8%	$2M and up	95.5%	41
27	121	22%	Totals	96.6%	31

Fraser Valley Detached Property Sales in the last week of September

# Sales at/over Asking	Total Sales	% of Sales at/over Asking	Sale Price of Home	% of Asking Price	Avg Days on Market
38	85	45%	$0 to $999,999	100.0%	21
7	26	27%	$1M to $1.999M	97.6%	21
0	2	0%	$2M and up	92.5%	60
45	113	30%	Totals	98.9%	22

From the REBGV September Stats:

For all property types, the sales-to-active-listings ratio for September 2017 is 29.8 percent. By property type, the ratio is 14.6 percent for detached homes, 42.3 percent for townhomes, and 60.4 percent for apartments.

Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12 percent mark for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 percent over several months.

Note that last month (August 2017), the ratios were 34.6% for all properties, 16.3% for detached homes, 44.8% for townhomes, and 76.3% for apartments.

My prediction for October is exactly the same as for last month, that is, for a continued weakening of the market for single-family homes but a continued demand for attached homes (condos and townhouses) resulting in increased upward pricing pressure but at a slower rate than before because of affordability concerns based on the new mortgage rates (and expiring mortgage rate-holds.)

The last two increases in the mortgage rates and the higher standards for mortgage qualification, as well as stiffening monetary controls from China will eventually flatten the market. I believe that most areas of the Lower Mainland will see no price growth or even slightly negative price growth by the year-end with the exceptions of the Downtown core, which still shows very strong demand and rising prices.

Included below are the latest statistics for real estate in the REBGV (Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver) and FVREB (Fraser Valley Real Estate Board) areas. You will find a clickable link to each area below which will open up as a separate PDF file.

Click on the links (in blue) below for the statistics package for your area: (The links each take a few seconds to open as they are files stored on my Google Drive.)

BURNABY/NEW WEST
Burnaby East	Burnaby North	Burnaby South	New Westminster

TRI-CITIES
Coquitlam	Port Coquitlam	Port Moody

VANCOUVER
Metro Vancouver	Vancouver East	Vancouver West

NORTH SHORE
North Vancouver	West Vancouver

SOUTH FRASER/RICHMOND
Ladner	Tsawwassen	Richmond

RIDGE MEADOWS
Pitt Meadows	Maple Ridge

UP THE COAST/ISLAND
Bowen Island	Squamish	Sunshine Coast	Whistler

Here are the full statistic packages for:

Greater Vancouver

The Fraser Valley (which includes Surrey, North Surrey, South Surrey/White Rock, Cloverdale, Delta, Langley, Abbotsford, Chilliwack, and Mission.)

Below is a link to a graph showing the rise in prices in the Lower Mainland just for resale properties (no new homes) over the last year. This link is live so it will update when the new statistics come in each month. LINK to live graph

Please feel free to contact us if you would like specific information for your sub-area or if you would like a market evaluation of the value of your home.